Lottery prophecy; Bah, humbug. That’s what some people say. Others believe that using lottery number analysis to make lottery prophecy is perfectly valid. Who’s right hongkong prize? Many players are only left sitting on the fencing without any clear way to follow. If you don’t know stance, then, perhaps this article will reveal the truth and give you a clearer picture of who is right.
The Controversy Over Making Lottery Prophecy
Here is the argument typically espoused by the lottery prediction skeptics. It goes similar to this:
Guessing lottery numbers is wasted effort. Why analyze a lottery to make lottery prophecy? After all, it’s a random game of chance. Lottery number patterns or trends don’t exist. Everyone knows that all lottery number is equally likely to hit and, ultimately, all of the numbers will hit the same number of times.
The best Defense Is Judgement and Reason
At first, the arguments appear solid and based on a sound exact foundation. But, you are about to discover that the mathematics used to support their position is misinterpreted and misapplied. I believe Alexander Pope said it best in ‘An Essay on Criticism’ in 1709: “A little learning is a dangerous thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there low draughts intoxicate serotonin levels, and drinking largely sobers us again. inch In other words, a little knowledge isn’t worth much from the individual who has a little.
First, let’s address the unawareness. In the exact field of probability, there is a theorem called legal issues of Huge numbers. It simply states that, as the number of studies increase, the results will approach the expected mean or average value. As for the lottery, this means that eventually all lottery numbers will hit the same number of times. By the way, I totally agree.
The first unawareness arises from the word what, ‘as the number of samples or studies increase’. Increase as to the? Is 50 pictures enough? 100? 1, 000? 50, 000? The name itself, ‘Law of Large Numbers’, should give you a hint as to. The second unawareness centers around the use of the word ‘approach’. If we’re going to ‘approach the expected mean’, how close do we must get before we are satisfied?
Second, let’s discuss the misapplication. Unawareness the theorem results in its misapplication. I’ll show you spinning program so well by asking the questions that the skeptics forget to ask. How many pictures could it take before the results will approach the expected mean? And, what is the expected mean?
To demonstrate use of Law of Huge numbers, a two-sided coin is switched numerous times and the results, either Heads or Tails, are recorded. The intent is to prove that, in a fair game, the number of Heads and Tails, for all intents and purposes, will be equal. It typically requires a few thousand flips before the number of Heads and Tails are within a fraction of 1% of each other.
Based on the lottery, the skeptic proceeds to apply this theorem but never specifies what the expected value should be nor the number of pictures required. The effect of answering these questions is very telling. To demonstrate, let’s look at some real numbers. For the purposes of this discussion, I’ll use the TX654 lottery.
Within the last 336 pictures, (3 years and 3 months) 2016 numbers have been drawn (6×336). Since there are 54 lottery numbers in the hopper, each number should be drawn about 37 times. This is the expected mean. Here is the point where the skeptic gets a migraine. After 336 pictures, the results are no place near the expected value of 37, not to mention within a fraction of 1%. Some numbers are more than 40% higher than the expected mean and other numbers are more than 35% below the expected mean. What does this imply? Obviously, if we mean to apply legal issues of Huge numbers to the lottery, we will have to have many more pictures; a lot more!!!
In the coin flip experiment, with only two possible outcomes, in most cases it takes a couple of thousand studies for the leads to approach the expected mean. In Lotto Tx, there are 25, 827, 165 possible outcomes so, how many pictures do you think it should take before lottery numbers realistically approach their expected mean? Err?
Lotto Number Patterns
This is where the argument against lottery number prophecy falls apart. For example, if it takes 25, 827, 165 pictures before the expected values of all 54 lottery numbers are within a fraction of 1% of each other, it should take 248, 338 years of lottery pictures to reach the period! Amazing! We’re talking geological time frames here. Are you going to live that long?
Legal issues of Huge numbers is intended to be applied to a long-term problem. Trying to apply it to a short-term problem, our life time, attests nothing. Looking at the TX654 lottery statistics above ensures that. It also demonstrates that lottery number patterns and trends exist. In fact, in our lifetime, they exist for all lotteries. Some lottery numbers hit two to three times more often than others and continue do so over many years of lottery pictures. Serious lottery players know this and make use of this knowledge to improve their play. Professional bettors call this playing the odds.